Oscar Nomination Predictions

Ugh, predicting something disappointing is a mildly cruel fate, but I do this to myself, like predicting Christmas presents from relatives who don’t know you well. The predictions, for proof of how wrong I always am, so let’s see if Ethan Hawke will benefitting from my wrongness:

Best Picture


BlacKKKlansman
Black Panther
The Favourite
Roma
Green Book
A Star is Born
Vice

Some notes: I don’t think enough people would vote Bohemian Rhapsody into #1 positions. It’s gonna likely be a small year. If something surprises, be it Avengers or First Reformed, I will melt. If it’s Leave No Trace, may my heart be still or let me die happy.

Best Director


Spike Lee (BlacKKKlansman)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Adam McKay (Vice)

Some notes: Coogler getting in for Black Panther would be a giant middle finger to the Academy (Best Picture & Director for superhero movie). I predict bonkers for Vice & Favourite all over, and Spike Lee and Bradley Cooper are too big to miss (tho who the fuck knows–Globe vs Oscar last year: out Three Billboards, The Post, and Ridley Scott for Phantom Thread, Lady Bird, and Get Out. Maybe First Reformed or Coogler could surprise.

Best Lead Actor


John David Washington (BlacKKKlansman)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Christian Bale (Vice)

Some notes: I think they’ll be very into BlacKKKlansman, so Washington Jr may get his first nom over Ethan Hawke. The others are inevitable.

Best Lead Actress


Glenn Close (The Wife)
Toni Collette (Hereditary)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me)

Some notes: FUCK IT ALERT: Toni Collette is fantastic and memorable and beloved and popular. MAYBE she’ll get there! I need some hope. The rest seem inevitable!

Best Supporting Actor


Adam Driver (BlacKKKlansman)
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Richard E Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me)
Sam Rockwell (Vice)
Michael B Jordan (Black Panther)

Some notes: FUCK IT ALERT 2: Black Panther is undeniably popular, Jordan is hot (in so many ways). I want him to be nominated, and Sam Rockwell keeps getting forgotten elsewhere. I have concerns about Richard E Grant. Please not Chalamet for multiple reasons, but it might happen.

Best Supporting Actress


Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Claire Foy (First Man)
Amy Adams (Vice)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Some notes: This is the lineup that was locked a long time ago. WHAT IF??? First Man isn’t liked? Stone OR Weisz gets in, which one? (Weisz for me). King for the win! Emily Blunt in A Quiet Place??!!

Best Original Screenplay


The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
Vice
First Reformed

Some notes: I feel it’s either First Reformed or Eighth Grade. I say both (my personal additions, I have no CLUE HOW FIRST REFORMED MISSED MY EDITS? The rest are mostly guaranteed; the reverse of adapted

Best Adapted Screenplay


Leave No Trace
Can You Ever Forgive Me
The Death of Stalin
BlacKKKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk

Some notes: Is Beale Street gonna surprise and get picture and director? Are they gonna go for past nominees Granik and Armando Iannucci? Could they go for Black Panther or Crazy Rich Asians?

Best Documentary


Won’t You Be My Neighbor
Three Identical Strangers
Minding the Gap
Free Solo
RBG

Some notes: Mr Rogers and RBG are icons for good, and 2018 needed that. 3IS reunited siblings, and Free Solo is highly popular. I think Obama’s suggestion Minding the Gap, but that could go Shirkers or Hale County

Best Animated Movie


Ralph Breaks the Internet
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Spider-man: Into the Spiderverse
Mirai

Some notes: Please not The Grinch. This should go back to the animated membership for voting.

Best Cinematography


Cold War
Roma
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born

Some notes: The Barry Jenkins vs Damien Chazelle reunion battle most likely will face off here. Matthew Libatique should have his day for his A Star is Born concerts, though Cold War is the musical of the year. Roma, because Alfonso *swoon*

Best Costume Design


Mary Poppins Returns
The Favourite
Black Panther
Mary Queen of Scots
Bohemian Rhapsody

Some notes: Mary and Favourite are another double nomination of Sandy Powell. Black Panther for the win. MQofScots were striking if been there-done that. Bohemian Rhapsody could succumb to anything: Crazy Rich Asians, BlacKKKlansman, If Beale Street Could Talk, First Man.

Best Production Design


Mary Poppins Returns
The Favourite
Black Panther
First Man
Roma

Some notes: Roma is a darling, and scifi/period First Man seems safe. Panther, Favourite, and Mary are distinct.

Best Editing


Roma
First Man
Vice
A Star is Born
Mission Impossible: Fallout

Some notes: Vice, Roma, and First Man seem safe. How loved is A Star is Born at this point? Fallout is my wildcard. Any of the other best picture hopefuls could swoop in for that spot (oh god not Green Book; give me an I, Tonya style popup. MAYBE WIDOWS!!??

Best Makeup & Hairstyling


Border
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody

Some notes: Vice, Stan & Ollie, Mary Queen of Scots might slide in.

Best Sound Mixing


AKA: mixing score, sound effects, dialogue into the movie.

Roma
First Man
Bohemian Rhapsody
A Star is Born
A Quiet Place

Some notes: Who knows if they’ll like A Quiet Place? (I also went for Blunt in supporting cuz that would JUST happen). Maybe they’ll go Fallout or Panther

Best Sound Editing


AKA: creating sounds for film

First Man
A Quiet Place
Black Panther
Ready Player One
Mission Impossible: Fallout

Some notes: The usually go action, so who knows what could slide in. Three of Welcome to Marwen?

Best Score


Black Panther
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

Some notes: Panther, First Man, and Beale Street have impactful scores. MPR is light but in a popular film. Isle of Dogs is de facto Alexandre Desplat. Maybe Coen Bros spoil (omg, what if Buster Scruggs wings up the big nominee?? Adapted, cinematography, costume, sound, score, song–all not unimaginable.

Best Song


Shallow (A Star is Born)
I’ll Fight (RBG)
All the Stars (Black Panther)
Where the Lost Things Go (Mary Poppins Returns)
When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)

Some notes: Panther and A Star is Born are already up for Grammy’s, and RBG/doc/Diane Warren for I’ll Fight. Mary Poppins Returns could have 2 but “Lost Things” seem most likely. They loves Coens, and Buster Scruggs was easy to watch on Netflix.

Best Visual Effects


Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
Solo
Christopher Robin
Ready Player One

Some notes: Could be Ant-Man or Welcome to Marwen or Mission Impossible. I kinda want Panther to miss for something else to get some love.

I won’t insult a blind prediction for the shorts, but I can’t wait to see exactly how bizarre tomorrow morning is.

ckryaninko

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