Oscar Predictions

We finally reached New Queer’s Eve, and before we embark on too much drinking and perform virgin sacrifices for Glenn Close’s win, I have some winner predictions to make:

Best Picture


BlacKKKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Roma
Green Book
A Star is Born
Vice

Some notes: Even if it’s wishful thinking that my favorite and easily the most lauded film of the year will win best picture. Though The Favourite, BlacKKKlansman or Black Panther wouldn’t be unwelcome, Cuaron’s opus deserves this.

Best Director


Spike Lee (BlacKKKlansman)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Adam McKay (Vice)

Some notes: As long as it’s not McKay’s below-the-mastery nomination, I’m expecting Alfonso Cuaron to win the prize again. Lee for the steal wouldn’t be unexpected, though.

Best Lead Actor


Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Christian Bale (Vice)

Some notes: Malek has steamrolled his way through with an okay Freddie Mercury impersonation. Bale or Cooper would be my choice for the honor.

Best Lead Actress


Glenn Close (The Wife)
Yalitza Apricio (Roma)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me)

Some notes: I’m thinking Julianne Moore. I’m thinking Roger Deakins and James Ivory. I think a legend is going to be awarded tonight, and please let that legend be Glenn Close.

Best Supporting Actor


Adam Driver (BlacKKKlansman)
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Richard E Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me)
Sam Rockwell (Vice)
Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)

Some notes: Ali seems inevitable, and I like his performance more than Viggo’s, but it’s a damn lead. Richard E Grant is my top 2 best of the year, really close with Steven Yeun in Burning.

Best Supporting Actress


Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Amy Adams (Vice)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Some notes: People love Regina King even if people cooled on Beale Street. Unless Weisz sneaks in for her second, King seems solid.

Best Original Screenplay


The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
Vice
First Reformed

Some notes: The Favourite has been an awards magnet, and it’s wonderfully crafted and utterly witty. Just not Green Book, because Roma, Vice, and First Reformed at least aren’t being contested by its subject’s fabricated friendship.

Best Adapted Screenplay


The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Can You Ever Forgive Me
A Star is Born
BlacKKKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk

Some notes: The recent accolades and the love for its stars makes me think it could pull off a surprise win. I have a strong feeling BlacKKKlansman will beat it, but that one hasn’t been universally loved and has controversy behind it.

Best Documentary


Hale County This Morning This Evening
Of Fathers and Sons
Minding the Gap
Free Solo
RBG

Some notes: Obama loved it, and the documentary branch is not particularly easily predictable. RBG or Free Solo will probably win though.

Best Animated Movie


Ralph Breaks the Internet
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Spider-man: Into the Spiderverse
Mirai

Some notes: It’s been steamrolling, though I wish Wes Anderson could finally win something.

Best Cinematography


Cold War
Roma
Never Look Away
The Favourite
A Star is Born

Some notes: Roma has been taking all the awards, but Cold War winning here would be nice to spread the love. Stellar list; probably my favorite collection despite not getting Never Look Away in town yet.

Best Costume Design


Mary Poppins Returns
The Favourite
Black Panther
Mary Queen of Scots
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Some notes: Ruth E Carter deserves to finally win, and Black Panther is a gorgeous mix of African design with tech and modernity. Sandy Powell doesn’t need another Oscar.

Best Production Design


Mary Poppins Returns
The Favourite
Black Panther
First Man
Roma

Some notes: WAKANDA FOREVER

Best Editing


Vice
BlacKKKlansman
Green Book
The Favourite
Bohemian Rhapsody

Some notes: Ugh, worst nominations. It’s between Vice and BlacKKKlansman, and I’m gonna flip a coin and gooooooo with Vice. BlacKKKlansman only resonated the story with me through the cuts on second watch.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling


Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

Some notes: Vice will get this one, but Border deserves it.

Best Sound Mixing


AKA: mixing score, sound effects, dialogue into the movie.

Roma
First Man
Bohemian Rhapsody
A Star is Born
Black Panther

Some notes: To me, would be Bohemian Rhapsody’s only deserving win. They mixed the concerts well and that’s most of the film’s appeal.

Best Sound Editing


AKA: creating and changing sounds for film

First Man
A Quiet Place
Black Panther
Roma
Bohemian Rhapsody

Some notes: First Man is the most traditional, and it’s between that one and A Quiet Place for me. BR might steal though.

Best Score


Black Panther
BlacKKKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

Some notes: Beale Street’s score made me weep, but Ludwig Gorannson just won the Grammy’s. He’s got an edge over Brittell’s woodwinds.

Best Song


Shallow (A Star is Born)
I’ll Fight (RBG)
All the Stars (Black Panther)
Where the Lost Things Go (Mary Poppins Returns)
When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)

Some notes: I hope Lady Gaga flips the bird to Leo on her way to the stage.

Best Visual Effects


Avengers: Infinity War
First Man
Solo
Christopher Robin
Ready Player One

Some notes: The world’s most popular movie deserves this over its much less popular co-nominees.

I sadly only saw a handful of the shorts nominees, but I will guess Bao for animated, Endgame for Documentary, and Marguerite for Live Action, just so they’re in there.

ckryaninko

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